How Sportsbooks Prevent Profitable Teasers Within a short amount of time bettors everywhere were betting these profitable subsets. Wong calculated that the teams teased through these key numbers won 76.1% of the time collectively in his backtesting. Conversely, -7.5 to -8.5 teased down to -1.5 to -2.5 was also profitable. Plus-1.5 to +2.5 teased up to +7.5 to +8.5 was profitable. If your tease passed through the 3, 6, & 7, it was a positive expectation (+EV) teaser. Furthermore, the scenarios were pretty easy to identify. What he found is that some point spreads when teased definitely exceed that 70.71% threshold. In it, he devoted a large section to his analysis of NFL teaser bets. In 2000, noted blackjack author Stanford Wong published Sharp Sports Betting. Cowboys +13 has to win more than 70.71% of the time for this to be a profitable wager. This also means that the square root of 50% is the implied probability of each leg of the teaser.

If the bet pays +100 we know that the implied probability is therefore 50%. The player bets the two-team teaser and gets an extra 6 points added to each leg of their bet. When first introduced it was typical for a 6-point teaser bet on football to pay +100 for a two-team wager and +180 for a three-team wager.

Teaser bets are commonly offered at US sportsbooks, especially for the NFL and college football season. Similar to a parlay, the player must win all legs of the teaser to win the bet. The extra points increases the implied probability of winning the bet compared to a standard parlay, but the odds reflects those extra points with a lower payout. In this article, we’ll recap why NFL teasers are beatable, how you can beat NFL teaser bets, some teaser pitfalls to avoid, and also some new ways to approach teaser betting.Ī teaser bet is a type of bet where the bettor is given extra points on each game of a parlay wager.

However, as markets tend towards efficiency they have become increasingly harder to beat. NFL Teaser bets have been a known sharp play for the last 20 years.

5 team teaser payout